O/T - General Election

Re: O/T - General Election

SirHenry 17 Feb 2020 17:40 pm said..

Summary

All well and good (alternatively a complete dereliction of duty if they weren't) but will not go anywhere near mitigating the harm if a comprehensive FTA cannot be agreed with the EU.

Even assuming all those countries are happy for us to roll over on the same terms, they may want something better for them....

Pressure is on to deliver.
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Re: O/T - General Election

Lewi7 18 Feb 2020 17:12 pm said..

The pressure appears to be building in the EU. The business communities across the EU want to agree a deal with the UK asap - it's to their benefit to do so, given the level and balance of trade, which is circa £83 billion pa in the UK's favour. A WTO scenario for them would be painful, far more than for the UK.

However, the EU leadership as you can imagine absolutely hate what has & is happening and want to do all they can to delay and cause issues for the UK - this is their job so not a criticism from me.

So, you have the business community pushing the EU to agree a deal & the EU don't want to do that. In the meantime the EU want to have alignment; jurisdiction over the UK, and have yet to figure out what to do in Jan 2021 when the UK's contributions cease. If the EU maintain their red lines they are unwittingly pushing the UK to WTO / no deal.

We are in a role reversal scenario - when May was PM & Hammond Chancellor they weren't preparing the UK to lave at all and the EU never thought we would. Now, we have leavers in all the key / top Gov positions and it's the EU who aren't prepared.
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Re: O/T - General Election

JamesK 19 Feb 2020 06:34 am said..

We all hope you are right Lewi but I think the EU are better prepared than us , have more experienced trade negotiators and we are more in need of a deal. A larger proportion of our trade is with the EU than than their proportion with us. Also, Boris has introduced an artificial deadline which will be embarrassing if he misses.

I’m predicting a fudge. We’ll trade on WTO terms but it will be dressed up as an Australian style deal.

Time will tell.
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Re: O/T - General Election

Lewi7 19 Feb 2020 17:04 pm said..

It's the other way round, the EU need a deal more than the UK does, the balance of trade is hugely in the UK's favour and growing too. The EU's negotiations are currently failing with Canada for example, it's taken them 10 years and still it's not signed - there are 27 interested EU parties that have to agree.

Boris's Dec 31st deadline is to force the issue, force the EU into a deal or WTO terms as of Jan 2021, as opposed to extending the Transition Period.

If the UK trades with the EU on WTO from Jan 2021 there are many advantages. I'll give you a simple example.
On WTO terms & / or not being in the EU with an equivalent WTO deal means we no longer have to apply EU tariffs on oranges we import from North Africa (which we had to in the EU to protect orange growers in Southern Europe. We don't grow oranges, and the price of oranges comes down - now expand this to all the goods we buy.

Then consider and other example, the freedom the Gov will have to expand / restrict VAT on goods and raise / lower the %. If the electorate doesn't like it we vote them out.
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Re: O/T - General Election

SirHenry 19 Feb 2020 17:43 pm said..

Not without its own conundrums for the UK either though.
For example, petroleum.

As for who needs who more, you can measure it by totals or by proportion and come to different conclusions. WTO deal will be damaging to both parties so there should be a will to come to an agreement but there are two things working against this.

1. Internal integrity of the single market is of paramount political importance to the EU
2. As you rightly say, any agreement has to be approved by 27 countries and as we saw with TTFP that can also include regional agreement within countries.

High Stakes gambling indeed...
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Re: O/T - General Election

Castle Grim Reaper 20 Feb 2020 10:22 am said..

SirHenry wrote:Not without its own conundrums for the UK either though.
For example, petroleum.

Ok, genuine question, why is there a petroleum conundrum.
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Re: O/T - General Election

SirHenry 20 Feb 2020 19:45 pm said..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49405270

The article refers to "no deal" but is equally valid to "Australian Deal" which is just a way of making "no deal" sound less scary. It relates to trading on WTO terms. Apply zero tariffs and stuff the UK petroleum industry which (for now at least) is considered UK critical infrastructure or see petrol prices rise.

When the economic impacts of Brexit were released back in the summer this was one of the redacted items - they really didn't want people talking about it....
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