O/T - General Politics thread

These German car makers and French wine growers are really leaving it to the last minute to come to our rescue aren't they?

On paper the EU do have to coral 27 countries, but the reality is that Germany, followed by France dictate proceedings - the others do as they are told.

As for oven ready deal - there was one. The EU offered a FTA based on the Canada deal, but then withdrew it. The EU haven't stuck to the terms of the WA either. The UK doesn't actually need a deal, it's preferred of course, but unless the deal is better than WTO terms then there's no point.

The UK continues to sign FTA with other countries, the latest being Vietnam and Singapore and where deals are yet to be signed there are MRA's in place. The EU however, have to show other member states how they would be treated if they decided to leave, as a form of deterrent.

How does our trade with Vietnam and Singapore compare to our trade with the EU?

The UK doesn't actually need a deal, it's preferred of course, but unless the deal is better than WTO terms then there's no point.

We don't 'need' lots of things Lewi, but like having a water supply, central heating and a welfare state, life is much better with them. If they can't negotiate anything better than WTO and have to rely on free trade deals with the likes of super economies like Vietnam and Singapore - (according to the leave campaign the USA was drooling about the opportunities to deal more with us - they seem to have gone quiet on that one!) - not to mention the mighty Faroe Islands, then we're in for a huge drop in our national standard of living. But hey ho, we'll have our sovereignty eh!

The bottom line for me on this is, what benefits will Brexit mean to the working family? I don't mean vacuous slogans like soverignty, or breaking the shackles of the EU, I mean what are the benefits?

The downside is an economy on it's knees, probably the end of car manufacturing in the country, billions of pounds spent supporting business, a load of red tape and a lack of access to major European projects such as Galileo.....

...but rolling over trade deals with Vietnam on existing terms isnt a significant counterbalance. So what is the upside I am missing?

Singapore, Vietnam, Egypt all signed now, this is in addition to Japan (worlds 3rd largest economy), Canada, Korea, Switzerland, South Africa and many more.

The balance of trade between the UK & EU is in the UK's favour by circa £90B pa. A trade deal is what the UK Gov are looking for, the EU want to retain an element of political control. Now we see they want unlimited access for a min of 12 mths to UK fishing waters, even in the event of a no deal.

Two thirds of UK exports to the EU27 go to just 4 countries anyway. If we end up on WTO terms the EU will suffer big time.
- £12.9bn EU tariffs to UK
- £5.2 bn UK tariffs to EU

A new stat that's circulating is that for every 100 new illegal immigrants arriving in the UK it costs 23 existing employees jobs, so with border controls wages will rise - of course in turn so probably will the cost of living and dependent on the Gov of the day so will tax in some form or another.

so in France, 400,000 jobs depend on a deal / no deal; in Germany that figure is closer to 1M jobs. The EU business communities in individual countries are jumping up & down in desperate need of a deal, but the EU Organisation are doing their best to save face.

Currently Boris & Co are leveraging their point of advantage very well.

I would add that we already trade more with the US & China on WTO terms, even with EU barriers & tariffs in place and our borders and supply lines work perfectly well for this.

Scottish whiskey sales are predicted to double in in the US the event of a no deal; Next was predicting an uplift of £25M pa uplift in profits from a no deal as existing tariffs with China would be removed.

I would add that we already trade more with the US & China on WTO terms, even with EU barriers & tariffs in place and our borders and supply lines work perfectly well for this.

Scottish whiskey sales are predicted to double in in the US the event of a no deal; Next was predicting an uplift of £25M pa uplift in profits from a no deal as existing tariffs with China would be removed.

Is there such a thing as Scottish whiskey? Sounds fake news to me

I'll re-clarify. Scottish Whiskey sales. You do realise there are currently tariffs and barriers imposed on the product, which will lift as of Jan 1st, or based on your comment possibly not.

Lewi in your long post can you clarify what proportion of UK exports go to the EU vs what proportion of EU exports go to the UK.

Also can you source your stated fact that immigrants cost jobs. On first reading and without context I find this comment, at best, distasteful but am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.