COVID- 19

Re: COVID- 19

JamesK 05 Jun 2020 18:09 pm said..

steckers wrote:There is certainly an argument for that DT. But let's be honest, the numbers didn't fall that quickly during lockdown - we were still having high levels of death and new infection in late April - 5 weeks after lockdown.


The more critical thing is that the numbers were increasing very quickly before lockdown and after lockdown and a lag the death and infection rates did slow.

I don’t think there can be any doubt that a lot of lives would have been saved if all of the distancing measures had started a couple of weeks earlier.

Of course, that is with perfect hindsight. If China had known to lockdown after the first case had been found then none of this would have happened.
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Re: COVID- 19

Ciren35 05 Jun 2020 18:44 pm said..

JamesK wrote:Of course, that is with perfect hindsight. If China had known to lockdown after the first case had been found then none of this would have happened.


Genuine question - do you think there is any credence in the Richard Dearlove claim that this all started via a laboratory “accident” in China ???

Interesting theory :o
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Re: COVID- 19

steckers 05 Jun 2020 19:07 pm said..

I'm not always balanced Ciren - we all have our moments.

I actually follow American politics quite a lot (I'm half american) and am the equivalent of Lucifer in my Anti-trump feelings.

Over here, I don't really have an allegiance to any party so maybe that helps me to stay neutral.
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Re: COVID- 19

RTS2 06 Jun 2020 06:35 am said..

I am not buying any of the hindsight arguments .......

We had weeks of "notice"; and there was already any amount of data available and examples of strategies to combat the threat that Covid-19 posed to the UK population and to the UK economy.

I am afraid that the Govt. did not act quickly enough, and much of its early approach was shambolic. In fact, there has been a clear pattern of this. It is not about political observation or bias. Those who wish to dilute this for their own political agenda's etc. can live in their own state of delusion. Sadly, those who have lost their lives cannot speak for their suffering.

The Govt. has lost a lot of credibility through the way that it has dithered and delayed, made U-turns, and have simply failed to respond quickly and decisively at the start of this. There are some key areas where delay in taking a decisive response have been fatal. As for the credibility of SAGE! Well there are a number on that committee who should be encouraged to resign IMO. The amount of talk about being led by " the science”!

It's all boiled down to what science you decide to follow and why ??....

And the R-rate. The latest guideline. Well sadly we will see it rise as the UK returns to a fallacious state of normality where millions of people are prepared to play roulette, because it seems that very few have the appetite for strong Governance or for a political leader who has a clear vision of how to deal with this situation. It also shows people base -level of selfishness.

Even now the Govt. is being pushed to compromise on travel and quarantine in the face of "democracy" and "economics” when there should have been and should be only one pragmatic motivation on shaping measures.
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Re: COVID- 19

RTS2 06 Jun 2020 06:36 am said..

If we did not have the likes of Sir Capt. Tom or the NHS, the whole situation would have been a total disaster.... and now you watch the Govt. try and take any credit wherever they can squeeze some PR advantages. Just wait and see. Do not talk to me about politics and sticking together. Political exploitation will surface on all sides with the bunch of politicians we have on all sides of the House of Commons and as for sticking together I am afraid that the amazing work done by the NHS, many volunteers within the community and those who have made personal sacrifices are all being undermined from many people who are " still out for themselves" . Cynical maybe; but you can see it everywhere from some politicians to the person a few doors down.

Behind the windows where there are children's paintings of rainbows , there are many families who have adhered to the rules and who ( in many cases) still respect them and exercise selflessness. If only all households were the same.

This whole matter exposes the shambolic and pathetically weak state of politics in the UK and the seemingly lack of direction of the nation and the inability of much of the population to demonstrate self-discipline and to understand the real meaning of the responsibility that comes with democracy.

There are many issues that go deeper than Covid -19; but perhaps its legacy will be how society needs to readdress many of them in the longer-term, whilst ( in the shorter-term )somehow taking decisive measures to stave- off the imminent threat of what could potentially be an even worse second-phase of the virus in the late autumn and winter.

Have lessons really be learned? Let us all hope and pray that there is still a real conviction to put them into practice.......
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Re: COVID- 19

RTS2 06 Jun 2020 06:45 am said..

On the science front anyone out there with pattern baldness ( as with everyone ) please take continued ( extra ?? ) care of yourself. Research and data is revealing some potentially ground-breaking evidence linking many of the most severe cases with it !..

When a mate sent me a message on whatsapp with a link , I read his text which was a kind of " humorous " warning to me and initially smiled....and then I read the article .....

Scientific data suggest that in very simple terms, that androgens ( male sex hormones) that can contribute to hair loss, could also increase the ability of the virus to attack cells.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... rch-finds/
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Re: COVID- 19

lucifer 06 Jun 2020 09:21 am said..

Excellent post RTS2. With regard to the male pattern baldness theory its probably a case of correlation rather than causation. It's not a symptom of the disease like the dry cough or loss of taste/smell, it's more a feature of 'maleness' which in itself seems to be an increased risk feature.
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Re: COVID- 19

steckers 06 Jun 2020 09:28 am said..

Interesting posts RTS - I agree with a lot of your points.

I'm not ready to agree about lockdown. At some point in the future, probably well into 2021, we will have a report revealing the number of excess deaths caused by the lockdown itself. I wonder if it could actually be a bigger killer than the virus.

Many of us did say back in March that you cannot achieve a China style lockdown here. Countries like us and the USA place a premium on our freedom and therefore it's different to countries where people do what they are told. Not saying it's right or wrong - but that's the way it is. Please don't take this as a 'i told you so' type remark.

Either way, many scientists the world over have warned that this might be here to stay and no vaccine or treatment will deal with it as hoped. So maybe we just need to learn to live with it. For me, easing the lockdown is correct. If the R rate shoots up, then maybe we need to back-track. Obviously it's scary - but I believe these are the tough decisions that have to be made.

I have no real knowledge about Sage. But I do believe we need to recognise that this is NEW and the science is developing all the time. So we need to cut them some slack.

As a baldy, I read your link with interest - that's news to me. I think the emergence of this backs up my point about the developing science. Incidentally I just read something else which contradicts it to some point (a very high percentage of old men are bald - so we don't know if the baldness itself is the risk factor).

On a similar theme, I read in NY Times yesterday that they believe people with certain blood types are at greater risk (blood type A I think). Again, we are learning more all the time.

I guess my overall attitude is we tend to live in a blame culture. But sometimes, sh*t happens and it's not really about blaming someone.
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Re: COVID- 19

The Vic 06 Jun 2020 09:35 am said..

The baldness one is an interesting one, simply because the virus has hit the over 60s hard. The pattern for a lot of males in that age group and above is baldness. I think we have to be careful with main stream media outlets as they survive on fear. That said as someone who has zero political allegiance RTS2 is right that the government have been an absolute disaster. While we all recognise this is unprecedented times, I consider Boris to be the most foolish Prime Minister we've ever had. I couldn't care less about Brexit either way, but he's shown himself to be utterly devoid of leadership. It pains me to say that I agree with Peter Hitchens, who describes politics these days as 'show business for ugly people'. For those that argue this pandemic is not a political issue, then you are being incredibly naive.

Whats been difficult during this pandemic is the lack of data for people to be able to make sensible choices. The modelling has not helped as it has driven people into fear with worst case scenarios. For me one of my big hopes coming out of this is that we get a better delivery of data
Last edited by The Vic on 06 Jun 2020 14:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID- 19

JamesK 06 Jun 2020 11:11 am said..

steckers wrote: At some point in the future, probably well into 2021, we will have a report revealing the number of excess deaths caused by the lockdown itself. I wonder if it could actually be a bigger killer than the virus.



Talking with hindsight again, if the lockdown had started sooner then it would have been required for a shorter period and presumably been the cause of fewer deaths.
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