COVID- 19

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Re: COVID- 19

13 Nov 2020 12:43 pm:

Gloucester Mute wrote:Are you a Professor The Vic ?? Are you saying SAGE aren't made up of scientists ?? Are you saying SAGE should all be replaced ?? It seems to me that you are very sure of yourself IF a mere layman. :roll: :roll:

Can't speak for The Vic but here goes Mute and I am sure you will just scoff at this.

I am a scientist, and one of the leading ones in my field in the whole world. It should also be stated that my field is a long way from virology.

I look at the stuff Whitty, Vallance and the SAGE committee claim to be science with absolute horror as it invariably doesn't add up. I have to wonder if we would have been better served by a Chief Scientific Officer who was from another line of science rather than a virologist, they would at least then have questioned what was being said to them before glibly advising the government.

Instead we have a virologist ably assisted by a doctor and a load of pandemic modellers trotting out data that suits their tunnelled opinions and doom mongering.

Outdated figures predicting thousands of deaths a day are revealed to be incorrect, the solution is to take the dates off future charts.

There was advice not to wear face masks, this was then changed to make it law that you have to wear one, no research into it has been revealed then or since so one of these instances was scientifically incorrect.

We have a test that is claimed to be rubbish due to false positives and this is just called nonsense despite the manufacturer recommendations supporting it. We now have a new test and it is claimed that this is rubbish as it doesn't find enough cases, maybe this one is accurate and the other rubbish, who knows, but the so called scientists should be publishing the basis for their approach.

I see no science in any of this, just incompetence and self-interest.
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Re: COVID- 19

13 Nov 2020 14:15 pm:

I think you're being a tad harsh on SAGE there CGR. For starters, the modellers' forecasts ( not predictions) were based on what would transpire IF NOTHING WAS DONE. It was, and hence the forecast did not happen; you could say job done well. SAGE were also arguing for a short lock down in September based on their forecasts, nothing was done and infections went even higher than the 'worst case'. Again that seems to suggest they were well in the right.
When masks were first suggested as beneficial, the contra argument focussed on protection for the wearer. The fact that it benefitted the non wearer more was played down because there was a huge shortage of masks in the country and it was feared that encouraging people to go out and buy them would take them away from where they were needed most, the health and care services, which were already suffering from shortages of PPE because of a) the government doing nothing to prepare before the emergence of the virus as a threat in February (and that's being generous) b) a failure to follow up the gaps in provision identified by the 2016 Cygnus simulation into the likely effects of a flu pandemic (not CV but many similarities) and c) the well documented underfunding of the NHS since 2010.
The government has, in effect, politicised the 'science' and picked which of its many and varied recommendations were suggested to suit its own agenda and tried to shift responsibility for their political decisions on to the scientific community. There was obviously an element of panic involved as well as they realised the consequences of their decisions over the previous 10 years. The result has been an incoherent series of ill thought through decisions. I don't think you can blame this on the 'scientists' who came from a wide range of disciplines, it wasn't them being "tunnel- visioned" it was the lack of coherence and strategic competence of their taskmasters that deserve the opprobrium.
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Re: COVID- 19

13 Nov 2020 15:16 pm:

The prediction being based on nothing being done was a nonsensical excuse as they knew full well that a lot was being done already, it was also three weeks of incorrectness out of date. It was the one given all the focus and designed to scare people. Going on your argument, where was the prediction for what would happen if we all caught it and died immediately, it wasn't going to happen so was not a scenario.
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Re: COVID- 19

13 Nov 2020 15:20 pm:

Lovejoy - As i said New Zealand's scenario can only work if you act extremely early. The virus is now endemic, so it becomes more about how we live with it. As CGR as eloquently reflected Sage has some significant short comings. For the ONS to publicly speak out and essentially tell off Whitty and Vallance, is very damning.

Lucifer - The position of MPs and government is to weigh up 'ALL' scenarios, they then must take a decision. This requires having the best data available to them. The ZOE app has been one of the best resources of data along with ONS, both showed the stabilising before lockdown came, what was the basis of the government for our current lockdown? Well it was data that was out of date. In fact some of the models shown have been amended 3 times to reflect the changing nature before the lockdown press conference. Yesterday Imperial College completely adjusted their R rate to just below one. How on earth can a Government make clear decisions if they are not getting full data available. Yes its down to them to make sure they have all differing view points, and in truth they ought to take responsibility for not making sure they had all scenarios.
Last edited by The Vic on 13 Nov 2020 20:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID- 19

13 Nov 2020 20:04 pm:

Castle Grim Reaper wrote:The prediction being based on nothing being done was a nonsensical excuse as they knew full well that a lot was being done already, it was also three weeks of incorrectness out of date. It was the one given all the focus and designed to scare people. Going on your argument, where was the prediction for what would happen if we all caught it and died immediately, it wasn't going to happen so was not a scenario.


CGR, one of the problems with all this is the data is always out of date - but you can still extrapolate trends and the way infections and deaths have gone up since lockdown would seem to bear justify their forecasts. I don't understand your last point, it was always the case that only a limited proportion of the population would get the virus, why would you forecast everybody dying?

The Vic, we'll just have to disagree about the modelling but I agree the government shouldn't restrict itself to using data from a limited range of sources.

CGR, just noticed you're one of my residents, hope it's not too hot for you!
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Re: COVID- 19

14 Nov 2020 09:43 am:

lucifer wrote:
Castle Grim Reaper wrote:The prediction being based on nothing being done was a nonsensical excuse as they knew full well that a lot was being done already, it was also three weeks of incorrectness out of date. It was the one given all the focus and designed to scare people. Going on your argument, where was the prediction for what would happen if we all caught it and died immediately, it wasn't going to happen so was not a scenario.


CGR, one of the problems with all this is the data is always out of date - but you can still extrapolate trends and the way infections and deaths have gone up since lockdown would seem to bear justify their forecasts. I don't understand your last point, it was always the case that only a limited proportion of the population would get the virus, why would you forecast everybody dying?

The Vic, we'll just have to disagree about the modelling but I agree the government shouldn't restrict itself to using data from a limited range of sources.

CGR, just noticed you're one of my residents, hope it's not too hot for you!


Happy to disagree well!!

Will be interesting with the outgoings at No10 whether there will be a change towards the management of the virus. Politically Boris and I should have a lot in common, however, he's shown himself to be chaotic and weak in his leadership so far
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Re: COVID- 19

14 Nov 2020 10:27 am:

There is no guarantee that lockdown won't be extended, and there have been no guarantee's that the tier system will continue in his " trialed" state . BJ is for turning. With Cummings gone he might even turn full circle !!. It is anyone's guess.

Christmas is a political hot potato ( and turkey ) this year for many reasons.

The data is changing by the day. Without wishing to appear sceptical, I wonder how it is being interpreted ( manipulated ?) and for whose real benefit ? Ours ?.

To answer the question in which ways lockdown isn't working is complex. Shedweb admin have clipped the wings :D

On the surface the lower of that " R" number appears to be the holy grail by the Government. Shame they didn't think of that in March. Oh ! but the Chinese did. Trump ignored it to his seeming peril. China never follows the science ? ;) ....not anymore than the British government.

What science ?
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Re: COVID- 19

17 Nov 2020 19:03 pm:

My beacon of sanity Sweden, is having a change of tactics - rule of eight
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Re: COVID- 19

17 Nov 2020 23:21 pm:

The Vic wrote:My beacon of sanity Sweden, is having a change of tactics - rule of eight


I though this was interesting regarding Sweden's approach:

IMG_20201114_150249.jpg
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Re: COVID- 19

18 Nov 2020 22:53 pm:

The best and most consistent journalistic coverage of this pandemic has been by Dr Phil Hammond (‘M.D.’) in Private Eye and his appreciation of how New Zealand and Taiwan have managed compared to our expensive failures is very telling. He makes the point that Australia and NZ are now playing rugby in crowded stadiums without masks and quotes a kiwi doc which SWs might find amusing....” Your pandemic response is like your rugby —slow, confusing, clumsy, panicky and backwards!”.

PS he might have added, “......and administered by a bunch of mates who make the rules up as they go along”.
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