COVID- 19

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Re: COVID- 19

24 Jan 2021 20:49 pm:

Exactly; and even then that may only last for six months. No one actually knows. This is why the production rate needs to be doubled.

The vaccination programme will most likely require ongoing repeats. Dietrying; we all accept that some protection will be given after the one dose. The mathematical models for continued short-term optimums are accepted by the WHO. That is why they do not recommend the UK approach .

Where is the scientific evidence to support a continued medial level of immunisation on one dose after the respective recommended gap between the first and second ?.

I do think everyone under the age of 50 should be getting an antibody test prior to vaccination as the programme is extended; and those without antibodies given a priority. Just seems logical even though the antibodies do not guarantee long-term immunity.

What bothers me is the lack of transparent data and scientific evidence on the medial efficacy with the AstraZeneca vaccine in relation to single -dose time line outcomes . It appears that Phizer are leaning towards avoiding the 12 week gap and the WHO are not advocating a 12 week gap; along with some very senior UK medics.


https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ember-2020.

I spent some hours reading this and most of the related data that is actually available and could find nothing remotely conclusive in the data or reporting regarding the O A Z single-dose efficacy that would suggest that 12 weeks was a viable strategy. It was designed with a 4 week gap . The Phizer clearly a 3 week gap.

I do have deep concerns over so much of the advice that has been given to the Govt. It must be giving them some sleepless nights now.
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Re: COVID- 19

24 Jan 2021 21:04 pm:

Hoping we get borders closed for all international travel to and from the UK announced within the next two days other than hauliers with PCR testing and essential repatriation and business travel with testing and controlled quarantine for the latter two categories . Why the delay though ?. Get on with it ; I think "they" know it makes sense.

77 cases of the South African variant now reported in the UK. The liberalised track and trace system that works. :oops: .

Echoes of last March . When did deja vous become the catalyst for stricter policies ?......

We have been so slow in sorting out travel restrictions into the UK. Now is the time to get a strategy fully-sorted ( albeit 10 months too late ).
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Re: COVID- 19

24 Jan 2021 21:58 pm:

A couple of points I'd appreciate comment on:-

I was listening to a phone in radio programme this morning (Talk Radio I think or maybe LBC) and a member of the Israeli Medical dept overseeing their vaccination programme commented that those who'd already tested positive for or had had covid were not part of their priority groups since they would already have developed a resistance naturally which would probably be stronger than the vaccine.

They're at the back of the flu jab queue.

How many have tested Positive or recovered from Covid in UK?

Another contributor made reference to comment made by Van Tam on Friday and repeated today by Hancock that the inoculations being administered would not prevent someone catching the virus or being infectious. He questioned therefore if these jabs really were vaccinations as established by medical definition which was quoted as something like (from my web dictionary reference which sounds similar to that quoted this morning)
"a suspension of attenuated or killed microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, or rickettsiae), administered for prevention, amelioration, or treatment of infectious diseases."
The discussion developed along the lines that these jabs were effective only in reducing the severity of the effects of someone developing the Covid (coughs, head aches, muscle aches etc)

The Israeli Doctor's observations made sense to me, and the discussion regarding the efficacy of the treatments developed by Pfizer and Oxford AZ seems to imply that they're not really vaccines. If not, what are they.

I've got no dog in the fight, I'll happily have a jab if offered. However, if they are as Van Tam and Hancock say, then other than for those of greatest vulnerability in society across the age groups and with existing health conditions - what's the point of the jab, and what's the point of the travel passport being discussed since there is no determined efficacy worthy of serious medical confirmation it seems?

Any thoughts?
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Re: COVID- 19

24 Jan 2021 23:12 pm:

No vaccine stops you getting whatever the vaccine was for, it hopefully reduces the risk of dying from it. The annual Flu vaccine is a perfect example. Flu's been around since 1155 and killed 11K in 2019. ( last pre C-19 figs ).C-19 is here and staying. Going forward, I'd say we'll be having annual jabs for it. Thanks to the usual Chinese Communist Party stance of saving face over lives, we're stuck with it and they've yet to accept blame for their failures.
aka John Neary
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Re: COVID- 19

25 Jan 2021 00:01 am:

Bod, my understanding of any vaccine is that it is a mild dose of the virus that causes the body to produce antibodies which will then be able to kill off the actual virus should you come into contact with it thereafter. You might get a mild dose yourself in the process of this but it won't kill you. However because Covid is transmitted through droplet and touch it won't stop you coming into contact with it and you could be a vector and transmit it to others. That's why we still have to be careful with social mixing after the jab; it should stop it killing you but doesn't stop you spreading it to others.
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Re: COVID- 19

25 Jan 2021 07:40 am:

Bod,

A couple of interesting points you've alluded to.

Interestingly I raised the thought for discussion on here a few days ago with reference to the idea of not vaccinating those who have antibodies ; so for me it was very interesting to hear that this is what is happening in Israel. Was the Israeli doctor talking about this yesterday and is there a podcast catchup link ?. Would be interesting to listen to it.

I was not suggesting the idea they are not vaccinated at all; just later than they were scheduled to be vaccinated.

I also mentioned the idea yesterday prior to your post. I do think it makes total sense. Rather than just relying on data though regarding actual confirmed historical or current cases ( 3.65 million to date ) my thought was that everyone should have an antibody test prior to vaccination to establish if they have the antibodies for the very same reason that you have mentioned.

For all we know, there maybe 5-10 million carrying the antibodies. IF these people ( under the age of 50)were put down the queue; then my point was, that this would focus the roll out on those who to date have no antibodies and therefore no immunity. Given the order of the roll -out this would give the Govt. time to put the antibody testing etc. and infrastructure in place over the next few months to accommodate these "tweak".

My thoughts were that perhaps this should apply to those under 50 and for those already confirmed cases those who have been confirmed as positive within the last 6 months. The medical advisors would be able to determine a sensible " estimate " from data, research and other virus immunity models. There will be almost no research concluded yet ; granted , but there must surely be some immunity for most within 6 months of getting the virus.
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Re: COVID- 19

25 Jan 2021 09:09 am:

If someone has Covid do they automatically produce anti-bodies?
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Re: COVID- 19

25 Jan 2021 10:02 am:

Bod, the research that is available suggests that most people do; but not everyone. There has been quite of a lot of published material from research in China and the USA on this subject. There are going to be some cases where people who have tested positive at some point may not have antibodies .

I think it is most probably fair to say, that overall research suggests that the majority of people who have had the virus will have have them.

The establishing of this of course will depend on a reliably accurate testing.

That is clearly is one of the ongoing challenges . The Israeli research would indicate that their opinion is that a significant % of people do have the virus carry antibodies for them to approach their vaccination in the way that your previous posting suggests.

The only way to adopt that approach is to have the antibody test prior to vaccination; to include those who have been covid-19 positive tested at some stage.
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Re: COVID- 19

25 Jan 2021 10:45 am:

So the obvious challenges are...

1. The sheer amount of antibody tests needed. I believe availability of these is severely limited still.

2. Who is going to administer all these tests? - the big challenge for the vaccine roll out is vaccinators. Surely you aren't proposing that those delivering the vaccine be pulled away from that duty to deliver antibody tests?

3. There is a processing time - it has the potential to slow everything down dramatically. And time is one commodity that we do not have.

4. Am i right in thinking that the results of antibody testing are binary? Either a yay or nay. In other words, they don't tell you when you had the virus or how long your antibodies are going to last for. In fact, we still don't know how long natural immunity lasts for?

So if someone was 'demoted' down the list due to having antibodies - and then these only lasted a few weeks - someone could be very vulnerable. Obviously you could create a false sense of security. But if someone were demoted and then contracted the disease and died - you could be in legal jeopardy.
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Re: COVID- 19

25 Jan 2021 10:53 am:

aka John Neary
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