COVID- 19

Re: COVID- 19

SirHenry 12 May 2020 19:22 pm said..



Personally happy that this is happening now rather than in 6 months or a year's time. Hopefully somewhat more significant in real life outcomes than government bashing or obeisance on an obscure rugby bulletin board.
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Re: COVID- 19

shedwebadmin 13 May 2020 08:50 am said..

SirHenry wrote:obscure


Harumph ;)

Kuennsberg annoyed me yesterday (as usual) asking Rishi Sunak something like 'You can't pay for everybody forever, so who is going to lose?' I thought it was a lame attempt to stir the pooh-pot, and offered nothing relevant, just doom and gloom from the press of late, who needs it?

I'd like to see a news channel that just shows all of those 'and finally' stories, you know, surfing dogs, plucky three-legged tortoises with a lego wheel and stories about how the hedgerows are flourishing in Kent. Just to remind us there is some joy in the world still.
Hopefully, this text should be smaller and less prominent than the words above it...
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Re: COVID- 19

theoptimist 13 May 2020 08:56 am said..

Well said GM...
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Re: COVID- 19

MarcusRann 13 May 2020 09:05 am said..

GM for PM!
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Re: COVID- 19

TheOptimistSenior 13 May 2020 09:47 am said..

Personally happy that this is happening now rather than in 6 months or a year's time. Hopefully somewhat more significant in real life outcomes than government bashing or obeisance on an obscure rugby bulletin board.[/quote]



Thank you for posting this link Sir Henry, extremely interesting and well worth the hour it lasts.
The comments about forward modelling rather than retrospective monitoring of data to produce the R0 value especially so.
Great rebuff of an idiotic question from the Daily Mail (? Colin Ferguson) asking why the 12 members of the Independent SAGE group were all of a left wing persuasion and appeared to be very critical of the government. Sir David King the chair effectively told him he was a prat! The eminent scientists on the group were giving their expert views from many years experience, not for any political reasons.
I'd be very interested to read the report. What I have heard on this video would certainly lead me to change my thinking about how the epidemic has been managed from the beginning, in particular about contact tracing, testing and isolating.
The group is making very constructive suggestions and is perfectly transparent about the members of the group and is making the report available to anyone who wants to read it (unlike the official SAGE group).
One of the members is Professor Allyson Pollock, now at Newcastle University, who angered some on shedweb by her views on head injurys in rugby - in fact some of the comments about her were, at the time, quite objectionable.
Last edited by TheOptimistSenior on 13 May 2020 09:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID- 19

DieTrying 13 May 2020 09:48 am said..

MarcusRann wrote:GM for PM!


Lockdown fever has set in. :D :D
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Re: COVID- 19

Gloucester Mute 13 May 2020 10:33 am said..

Sir Henry - Thanks for the link. A most interesting "alternative" view from this "Independent SAGE" rather than the "appointed SAGE" group. Many of their "hindsight" observations are correct - though I can't recall any of their group stating them beforehand !! Always easier after the event...…

I guess I am left with 2 observations : Many of this group used to be on SAGE but no longer are for whatever reason. It is classic behaviour to feel rejected and yet still shout out from the rooftops when discarded. Sir David King is a great example of someone usurped but still wanting his say and chance to shine in the media spot-light.

: As just mentioned Allyson Pollock of "banning rugby fame" !! When I saw her on the group I shuddered !! A massively forthright character who positively revelled in attempting to ban rugby for all children (essentially based on a knock her son suffered) and even the whole game. At the time of her "fame" - under a previous distinguished University banner - she was all over the press rather than doing her job. Now in a new role with a new employer - I wonder why ??

I therefore feel that the worthiness of this self-formed Independent SAGE have been harmed by their obvious delight at being back in the media spotlight and being controversial for controversial's sake. And essentially jealous/pi55ed off that they are no longer part of the official SAGE group. Rather pathetic for such clever people...….
Nothing wrong with free speech or having an opinion - as long as it matches mine !!
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Re: COVID- 19

steckers 13 May 2020 11:44 am said..

That was my inclination too. I have no scientific insight - but just thought we have a group advising the govt and now this group saying some alternative things. Who to believe?

I am sure the people on SAGE are equally well qualified.
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Re: COVID- 19

TheOptimistSenior 13 May 2020 12:15 pm said..

Gloucester Mute, that must be one of the most unpleasant posts for a long time.
You make assertions about all the members of the group and Prof. Pollock and Sir David King in particular, which might be construed as defamatory. Do you have evidence to support your views?
Steckers, it seems to me that they are putting forward a cogent, very informed alternative/additional view of how this epidemic could be managed. Like you I have been, and remain, reluctant to criticise the government and its use of scientific data to create a clear strategy to handle the epidemic, but I see nothing to suggest there is any malicious intent (which GM asserts) in their publication of the 35 page report.
There are only 12 members of this group (although it would be legitimate to ask how and who decided they should be on the group) and this compares with over 100 on the "official" SAGE group at various meetings.
Unfortunately, membership of the official group is not published in entirety and the data used and evidence is not freely available. That is a negative aspect in my view. In addition, attendance at some SAGE meetings by Dominic Cummings and Dr Ben Warner (a data scientist), has raised the question of whether they had a political input in any way.
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Re: COVID- 19

SirHenry 13 May 2020 12:57 pm said..

The point about the alternative SAGE group is to engender transparency, which, as has been pointed out, is certainly lacking in the formal SAGE group.

Whether or not some findings are made with the benefit of hindsight, putting recommendations out in the public domain brings accountability to decisions made by government and the formal SAGE committee now.

GM's preferred approach seems to be to let the government make decisions without having to justify them and then put any inadequacies resulting from those decisions down to hindsight later.

A good example is the use of local health expertise in the contact and tracing process. This has proven effective in other countries and is widely recommended by local health authorities. Government approach has too date been not to utilise this resource. Arguing the rights and wrongs of the approach now is healthy..

I find the all too inevitable ad hominem denigration of personal motives "rather pathetic" .
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